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Pick: Over 2.5 Result: 0:1 Stake: 7/10 Odds: 2.10 Bookmaker: Paddy Power vCash: Yes
Posted: May 24, 2006, 18:50
Match starts at 20.30
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Two teams, that won’t participate on the World Cup this year, are playing their first friendly match before beginning of the World Cup. Republic of Ireland with far better squad didn't succeed to win two times against Israel and when it was most important - in last round - against Switzerland. Chile drew two times with Argentina and once with Brazil, but only five victories in 18 matches, it wasn't enough.
Not much to say about Chile. After failing to qualify for the World Cup, Chile's coach Nelson Acosta is in the process of building a new team. With three or four experienced/older players and with lots of rookies they'll have to work hard if they want to build a team that'll be capable to qualify for the next World Cup. In the qualifications they finished 7th with 22 points, three points behind place which led to the World Cup, with only 18 goals, what makes their attack the worst one in South America's qualification group. That is not the case with their defence, which conceded 22 goals and was fifth best in the group (behind Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador and Colombia).
Robbie Keane, Damien Duff, John O'Shea, Kevin Kilbane, Kevin Doyle, Steve Finnan, Steven Reid... all of them are main roles or very important players in their clubs and with all that players and few others, Republic of Ireland didn't manage to qualify for the WC. Their form in the qualifications were just great, they finished fourth with 5 goals conceded, with only one loss (France 0-1) and three points behind first placed France.
Republic of Ireland (most probable first eleven): Shay Given, Stephen Kelly, Gary Breen, Richard Dunne, Kevin Kilbane, Steve Finnan, John O'Shea, Steven Reid, Robbie Keane, Damien Duff and Kevin Doyle.
I haven't found the information about Nelson Acosta's team.
The conclusion: I said that defence of these two teams was really tough in the qualifications. But, it is normal that team like Ireland doesn't concede a goal against Cyprus or Faroe Islands and to play more defensive when they're playing with France or Switzerland away from home and also if those matches are of great importance. So it isn't that strange why they conceded only five goals. It's the same situation with Chile, when they were playing against better teams (Ecuador, Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil or Uruguay), they based their playing on defence and with one task - to concede less goals than their opponents. Anyway, tonight Republic of Ireland will play in 4-3-3 formation and in front of 40 000 supporters I think they'll destroy Chile's defence. Over 2.5 with medium high stake.
Totally wrong analyze. The match ended 0:1, so the pick is lost.
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Pick: Croatia Result: 1:4 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 2.37 Bookmaker: Skybet vCash: Yes
Posted: May 23, 2006, 00:39
Match starts at 20.30
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Tomorrow Croatia will start with their friendly matches and first one they'll play against Austria. After tomorrow's game Croatian national team has to play three more games, with Iran, Poland and Spain, before World Cup starts.
Croatia is playing against Brazil for about 20 days; it will be their first match on the World Cup 2006 and players want to prove that they are capable to take point/points from world champions and leave them to fight for the next round with Japan and Australia. But, before that (taking points from Brazil) Croatia has to take serious those friendly matches, try to play on the highest level and register as many victories as possible and with that - boost their morale and self confidence for the biggest football event this summer. In qualifications for the WC 2006 Croatia finished 1st, in front of Sweden, Bulgaria and Hungary, with no losses and 2 wins versus Sweden (0-1 and 1-0). They were just great and too strong for all the teams. From that point on nothing has changed; same players and same coach will give all they can to make some results.
Now, something about Austria. The most important is that they didn't manage to qualify for the WC. In qualifications Austria was in the group with England and Poland and even if they played well, drew with England and lost only 3 games they finished third. Aware of that they won't participate on the World Cup in Germany, they started to build a new youth team for the EURO 2008 and in coming matches (also against Croatia) Austria's coach Hickersberger will try on with that youth power.
On today's training few Croatian players were exempted (Niko and Robert Kovac, Srna, Modric, Tudor and Simic), but tomorrow everyone will be in the squad, maybe some of them will start the match from the first minute. Only one Croatian player won't play tomorrow for sure: Josip Simunic, he is injured (knee).
Austria will be in full squad, but with couple of young talented players. Their probable squad will be: Payer, Standfest, Stranzl, Scharner, Iberstberger, Leitgeb, Aufhauser, Prager, Ivanschitz, Janko and Linz.
Croatia has more quality players than Austria and comparing players from this to teams, we can see that Croatians are better on every (or almost every) position. Prso and Klasnic in the front, than Kranjcar and Niko Kovac as middle fielders and Tudor/Tomas and Robert Kovac as central defenders, it sounds really good. I'm not saying this because I'm from Croatia, I respect Austria and their players and I think they'll become for two or three years the same team as Croatia is today. But now with several unexperienced players against tough and solid Croatia, it's going to be a really hard task. Away win with 8/10.
Pick won. Austria - Croatia 1:4
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Pick: New York Red Bulls Result: 5:4 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 1.95 Bookmaker: Mansion vCash: Yes
Posted: May 20, 2006, 03:15
Match starts at 1.30
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Two teams from the bottom of the table. New York without victory this season (they played six games) and Chivas with only one win in five games (Real Salt Lake 3-0). This season NY Red Bulls and Chivas already played one match in April which ended 0-0. Both teams had several chances, anyway the goalkeepers (Meola and Guzan) were in the mood and better than forwards.
New York changed their last year name (Metro Stars) and with the new one (Red Bulls) they are winless in first six matches, but also with only one loss (in the second match against D.C. United 1-4). Last Saturday New York had a match with Chicago Fire in which they were superior most of the time and 20 minutes before end they were leading 1-0, in 70th minute Gutierrez tied from the penalty for the Chivas. The start of the season isn't that well as their coach Mo Johnstone wanted to be. With only five goals scored in five matches and with goal difference 5:8, they have to find out what's the winning formula. I'm not saying that they are playing bad or without sufficient number of chances, on the contrary NY players (like Djorkaeff and Philippe Peguero) are real trouble for opponents defence, but with not so good finishing.
Chivas USA are in, let's say, better situtation, they opened the season with 3-0 victory over Real Salt Lake and after that win they lost three times and drew once. Two defeats away from home - against D.C. United (2-0) and New England Revolution (3-1). Chivas have same situtation like NY Red Bulls, they have balanced team with few older players (Palencia, Llamosa, Razov and Marsch) who are leading the team and talented youngsters (Bornstein, Kljestan and Mendoza), however they aren't so efficient with scoring (5 goals in 5 games).
Red Bulls have some problems in the squad. Their first goalkeeper Tony Meola somehow got injured while warming up (vs Chicago) and was replaced by Jon Conway, who had few great saves later in the match and I could say that Meola's injury isn't such a problem. Another player who won't play (because of bad behaviour) is Amado Guevara - after he was replaced he didn't stay with his team mates, but went in the stands to his wife. Later, club decided to ban him for one match.
Chivas without troubles with injuries or suspensions, are facing Red Bulls in New York at Giants Stadium.
I watched all the matches from this two clubs and I can tell that they are kind of equal teams. One playmaker on each side: Djorkaeff and Palencia will decide whose team is going to win. Here I'm giving an advantage to Youri Djorkaeff and his team because they are playing at home in front of their fans and they are also chasing their first victory! Home win with 6/10.
Pick won. Final result 5:4
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Pick: Over 2.5 Result: 3:1 Stake: 7/10 Odds: 1.88 Bookmaker: Canbet vCash: Yes
Posted: May 18, 2006, 21:21
Match starts at 21.00
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After winning the Champions League Barcelona have one more game to play in Primera and they are finished with football matches for this season. Also the last match for their hosts - Athletic Bilbao.
Barcelona have already won la Liga and that was clear 3 or 4 rounds before the end of the championship. Now, all they are playing for is (maybe) the pride. I was writing about their recent form and way of playing in the last pick, but I'll write again: they're style of playing is extremely attacking and with three players in the front (Ronaldinho, Eto'o and Giuly or Larsson), they are "destroying" opponent's defence and as well making a huge number of chances. Therefore, it's not so strange that Barcelona have two players who have scored together 45 goals!
Barcelona's hosts won't lack any motivation at Saturday. That match will be their last game this season and what is more important they're playing at home against new champions. Athletic Bilbao had big problems this season and in one moment they were fighting for survival, however they started with winnings, got enough points and secured their position in the first league. So, they are playing for the same as their opponents - pride.
I don't know if Ronaldinho, Deco, Puyol and few others who were playing whole season will be in the squad against Athletic Bilbao, but I know that Barca don't have problems with injuries (except Messi). I hope that Xavi, Motta, Belleti, Ezquerro and Larsson will start from the beginning.
Atheltic Bilbao can't count on Yeste, whereas other players are able for the match.
My opinion: even if Barcelona key players don't start the match, I'm sure that subtitutions can counteract with Athletic's first eleven. Thereby, an open game with a lot of chances (from both sides) and maybe with 3 or 4 goals. Over 2.5 with medium high stake.
Pick won. Final result 3:1
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Pick: Over 1.5 Result: 2:1 Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.51 Bookmaker: 5dimes vCash: Yes
Posted: May 17, 2006, 15:45
Match starts at 20.45
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What to say about Barcelona and Arsenal? They are in the Champions League final and at the moment they are two best teams in the Europe. I can't say who have had more difficult way to the final as Arsenal passed Real Madrid and Juventus while Barca won against Chelsea and Milan. Also neither of these two clubs had plenty of luck on their journey and they deserve to play in the final tonight.
Barcelona have played 37 matches till now (almost whole season) and they didn't manage to score in three games. This season only four teams defeated Barca (Atletico Madrid, Sevilla, Valencia and Osasuna). Their goal difference is 79:32, what means that they have best attack and best defence in the league. Barcelona have already won the championship even if they have to play one more match (vs Athletic Bilbao on Saturday). Their current European form: in the CL Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 12 matches and their last loss was the 4-2 defeat against Chelsea last season. In last four games they didn't concede a goal.
The Gunners weren't so successful in Premier League. They have finished fourth (67 pts) and if they don't win the CL tonight they'll have a chance to play there next year. However their current European form is exquisite. In last 10 matches they have kept a clean sheet (Lehman didn't concede a goal for 919 minutes), what is a new CL record. Arsenal in this season's CL have won 8 matches and drawn 4, with the goal difference 14-2 and together with Barcelona they are unbeaten this season.
Barcelona (from): Jorquera, Ruben, Valdes, Belletti, Edmilson, Marquez, Mora, Presas, Puyol, Rodri, Sylvinho, Van Bronckhorst, Deco, Gabri, Giuly, Iniesta, Motta, Ronaldinho, Van Bommel, Verdu, Hernandez, Eto'o, Ezquerro, Larsson, Lopez, Messi.
Arsenal (from): Lehmann, Almunia, Poom, Cole, Senderos, Toure, Clichy, Campbell, Eboue, Djourou, Flamini, Ljungberg, Pires, Gilberto, Hleb, Reyes, Fabregas, Song, Henry, Van Persie, Bergkamp.
I don't know - if these two teams can't score in 90 minutes at least two goals, than I really don't know who can. For the first time (in the vCash contest) I'll put the stake 10/10 and the only reason is that I'm convinced that Henry - Fabregas - Reyes on one side and Ronaldinho and his company on the other can score two times. Over 1.5 with maximum stake.
Pick won. Final result 2:1
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Pick: FC Sevilla Result: 4:3 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 2.50 Bookmaker: Bet365 vCash: Yes
Posted: May 16, 2006, 15:44
Match starts at 21.00
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Sevilla have won the UEFA Cup and now they have chance to play in Champions League. Tonight they're playing their last match of the season against Real Madrid, who have the same goal - to go to CL. This two teams didn't start well, but later (in the second part of the season) they were too strong for most of their opponents. After winter break Real Madrid lost only one game (Mallorca 2-1), while Sevilla was defeated five times in last 20 matches. That says enough about their lately form. One match before the end of the season Real Madrid hold 2nd position with 70 pts and Sevilla 4th (65 pts). Sevilla and Real Madrid conceded same number of goals (36), what makes their defenses fourth best in the league (behind Valencia, Barcelona and Celta). Real have second best attack (67 scored goals) whereas Sevilla's attack is again 4th in the league (50 goals).
Injured and suspended players who won't be able for tonight's match are: Ronaldo, Gravesen, Miñambres, Woodgate, Helguera, Cassano, Robinho and Pablo García (Real Madrid). Sevilla will be in full squad (same squad they had in the UEFA Cup final).
Why am I giving an advantage to Sevilla? First of all because of their great performance this season. They're playing at Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where the atmosphere is more than superb and there they lost only twice this season. Last reason is that Real are coming to Sevilla without their best striker - Ronaldo - and few other key players I already mentioned. So, I pick Sevilla with medium stake (5/10). Btw, I think that the odd on Sevilla is really valuable.
Maybe if the year is 1999/2000 I would pick Real and say that they are big favourites tonight, but nowadays you just can't find that big favourite.
Tonight's game is also the last one for Zidane. This football sorcerer will finish with his professional football career after the World Cup and all I can say is that football and Real Madrid without him won't be the same. Thank you Zizou!
Pick won. Final result 4:3
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Pick: Draw at HT Result: 1:1 Stake: 6/10 Odds: 2.50 Bookmaker: Betfair vCash: Yes
Posted: May 13, 2006, 22:27
Match starts at 15.00
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Match between 2nd Milan and 5th Roma. Both teams need points - Milan for winning the tittle and Roma to take the position which leads to Champions league, but three points from this match could mean nothing if Juventus take one point from Reggio Calabria (Reggina) and Fiorentina three against Chievo.
One big player is back and fit for tomorrow - he is Francesco Totti. Totti was injured few months and his come back was against Inter in Cup final two days ago, what makes Roma more stronger - or almost same as Roma were 4 months ago (when they had 11 wins in a row). But, one other great player/defender, Christian Chivu got injured in the Cup final and defence without Chivu is surely weaker. Same as Roma, Milan have one big injury trouble: Andriy Shevchenko has problem with his knee and he'll be out for one month. All other players are fit.
Roma didn't succeed to win in the Cup final and also they aren't brilliant as they were (like I said) in the beginning of the second part of the season. But still they have team which is strong to face Milan at San Siro. On the other side Milan lost only once (Lecce 1-0) and drew 3 times in last 17 matches, what is really amasing.
I think that Milan and Roma will play with safety from the start and wait for the news from matches Juventus - Reggina and Chievo - Fiorentina. Or maybe this - Milan will start attacking from the first minute, but anyway Roma with Mexes, Cufre', Kuffour and Panucci can handle with Inzaghi, Gillardino, Seedorf and Kaka at least for one half. That is the reason why I'm picking draw at half time, but with medium stake.
Pick won. Result at half time 1:1
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Pick: Over 2.5 Result: 1:2 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.72 Bookmaker: Betfair vCash: Yes
Posted: May 11, 2006, 16:32
Match starts at 15.30
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The last match of the season and for both teams, the most important this year. This two teams are fighting for the place which leads directly to the Champions League (the third placed team have to qualify). HSV are 2nd at the moment one point above team from Bremen (3rd).
Hamburg could already be in CL, but they lost their last game in Berlin (Hertha 4-2) and ruined the chance. Thomas Doll couldn't count on several key players (van der Vaart, de Jong, Wicky, van Buyten and Beinlich) in that match, anyway HSV led two times but in the end lost. Injured players van Buyten and Jarolim will be fit for Saturday's match, while van der Vaart, Boulahrouz and Beinlich are doubtful. As you can see HSV have problems with injuries - what's not the case with Werder. Werder's only problem is that Johan Micoud is banned for three matches after grabbing Poulsen's genitlas (in the match with Schalke 04).
Extremely great this season, both teams deserve to play in the CL. With their attacking mentality and playing style (strict passing) - this match is a gift for everyone who'll watch the German Northern derby. HSV and Werder have two best strikers in the league (Ailton and Klose) and in this match we'll find out who'll get the title for the top scorer. I also hope that Klasnic - Valdez (Werder) and HSV's Barbarez - van der Vaart (maybe) won't miss their chances, but score every time when they'll have opportunity. So, I pick over 2.5 with almost maximum stake.
Pick won. Final result 1:2
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Pick: Preston North End Result: 0:2 Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.90 Bookmaker: BetInternet vCash: Yes
Posted: May 08, 2006, 17:20
Match starts at 20.45
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Second leg of the play-off semi-final. First match was played at Elland Road and ended without winners (1-1). Leeds were better team in the match but Preston scored first (David Nugent in second half). Home team had few good chances and the ball much of the time, however they gain only one goal.
Tonight Preston will be in full squad with three players in front, what means attacking football from the beginning (David Nugent - Danny Dichio - Brett Ormerod). David Nugent was the scorer in the fisrt match after he returned to fitness a lot earlier than everyone expected. His come back is really importance for the Preston, he is extremely talneted what he showed at Elland Road when he ran through the Leeds defence and put the ball behind Neil Sullivan (Leeds GK). Before that match he was injured for seven weeks. On the other side Leeds can't count on their captain Paul Butler (he didn't play also in the first match), what presents really big loss to Kevin Blackwell's team.
In the last pick I wrote about Preston and Leeds form. Leeds didn't play well in the end of the season and have won only one of the last 11 games. Preston have lost one of 13 and they are unbeaten in last 9 (six wins and three draws). This season Leeds and Preston played 3 times and Leeds succeeded to score only one goal, while Preston scored three.
I decided to pick home team. Main reason is that Leeds didn't manage to take a win in last three matches against Preston and they scored only one goal. I think that Preston just don't fit Leeds. They got their best striker back in the team (David Nugent) and playing in front of their supporters where they lost two games. Also a big handicap for Leeds is that their captain and great defender (Paul Butler) won't be able for tonights match.
Pick lost. Final result 0:2
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Pick: Under 2.5 Result: 1:1 Stake: 10/10 Odds: 1.65 Bookmaker: BWin vCash: No
Posted: May 04, 2006, 18:40
Match starts at 20.45
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First leg of the play-off semi finals. A team who comes out as winner from this and second match will face Watford or Crystal Palace in play-off final at Cardiff. These two teams played four days ago and Preston North End won 2-0. Both were already in play-offs, so maybe the game didn't have much importance.
Leeds finished the season as 5th with 78 points while Preston one position above them with 80 pts. Preston is really in great form - with six wins in last seven matches and lost just one in the last 12, and because of the whole season playing well Preston boss Billy Davies got the title of the manager twice. Preston scored 2 goals more than Leads (59 Preston) and conceded only 30, what makes Preston defence best in the leauge and fourth best in the country (behind Chelsea, Liverpool and ManUtd).
About injuries. Preston: three players are back for tomorrows match at Elland Road: Callum Davidson, Brian O'Neil and Marcus Stewart. Leeds captain Paul Butler will miss both play-off games against Preston what is a big loss for them. Leeds coach Kevin Blackwell is confident that he has the players who can replace captain Butler without weakening the team. He'll place Sean Gregan and Matthew Kilgallon to play together again.
This season Leeds and Preston have met two times and in two meetings Leeds didn't score while Preston did (2 goals four days ago). Reasons why I'm picking under 2.5 are that Leeds and Preston have excellent defence (Preston have best defence and Leeds third best in the league), Preston will try hard not to concede the goal and play in more defensive formation with counter attacks, what will make Leeds coach and his team to be more careful.
Pick won. Final result 1:1
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Pick: Draw Result: 0:1 Stake: 5/10 Odds: 3.25 Bookmaker: Bet365 vCash: No
Posted: May 01, 2006, 16:37
Match starts at 21.00
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West Brom is already relegated. They have to play two more games in Premier League and after that West Brom is going to Championship. Good news (if there can be any) is that their midfielder Ronnie Wallwork is back after not played last two games because of suspension, like defender Steve Watson and striker Nathan Ellington. West Ham have problems with injuries: James Collins, Paul Konchesky, Dean Ashton and Danny Gabbidon and it's obviuos that Alan Pardew (West Ham coach) won't risk them for FA Cup final by putting them in tonights match. Hayden Mullins got red card in FA Cup match against Liverpool.
About West Ham and WBA form. West Ham lost their last two League games and three of the last four. They didn't take a point in away matches since victory at Wigan 1-2 (25 March) and in that period they lost against Manchester Utd, Chelsea and Middlesbrough. West Ham won Fulham, Birmingham, Everton, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Wigan in away matches this season. They've managed to reach FA Cup finals (13 May) which will be played at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff - that says enough about their successful season. What can I say about West Brom? They didn't win in last 11 matches (only 3 points from a possible 33) and scored only once in last five games.
WBA players like their boss Bryan Robson agree that they owe to their fans at least a good preformance in last two matches (tonight against West Ham and last one vs. Everton).
West Bromwich Albion (from): Kuszczak, Hoult, Albrechtsen, Watson, Davies, Clement, Martinez, Robinson, Gera, Carter, Quashie, Wallwork, Kozak, Johnson, Inamoto, Greening, Kamara, Ellington, Kanu, Campbell.
West Ham United (from): Hislop, Ferdinand, Gabbidon, Collins, Konchesky, Benayoun, Reo-Coker, Etherington, Ashton, Harewood, Walker, Scaloni, Ward, Newton, Reid, Fletcher, Sheringham, Zamora, Katan, Ephraim.
My opinion: West Ham without few key players is playing against WBA in front of their supporters, but still quality is on opponents side and I think they can face relegated West Brom - and take one point. So, I pick draw.
Pick lost. Result 0:1
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